Rebirth Of The Madman Theory? Unpredictability Isn’t What It Was When It Comes To Foreign Policy
President Richard Nixon is closely associated with the ‘madman theory.’ Bettmann/Getty Images BY ANDREW LATHAM PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, MACALLESTER COLLEGE Tariffs are on, until they are not . Military force is an option … and then it’s off the table . Erratic behavior and unpredictability is having a moment in foreign policy circles. In the White House and elsewhere, it is seemingly being viewed as a strategic asset rather than a weakness. But it is far from a new strategy. Wild threats, sudden policy reversals and intentionally confusing language have long been used to keep adversaries off balance and gain leverage. In fact, the concept has its own name in international relations: “ madman theory .” As outlined by Cold War strategists Daniel Ellsberg and Thomas Schelling, it holds that projecting a readiness to take extreme action can shape an opponent’s calculations by heightening fears of escalation. While the theory was meant to be explanatory, in the sense that observers...
